Why Morrison at $4 to win the upcoming election is extremely good odds.

Today, the Guardian released an election poll stating Labor is comfortably ahead with the ALP leading the two-party preferred measure 53% to 47%. Almost all pundits are predicting that Australians will elect a new government. Tab sports bet even has a Labor victory at $1.22 and the Liberals at a juicy $4.00. I for one would like to see a change take place. Yet, as we get closer and closer until our time in the voting booth, I see Morrison becoming elected.

New South Wales most recent election win to the Liberals seems to have come as a shock to a vast majority of the populace, especially the youth. What the youth of today seem to forget is that the elderly still votes and that most of them are not on social media. Online youth are perhaps too confident in a Labor victory. Just 86.7% of 18-24-year olds voted in Australia’s last election compared to the national average of 95%. That disparity was showed just a few weeks ago when New South Wales, Australia’s most populated state, voted for a Liberal government.

On top of this the Liberal government looks to deliver the first budget surplus since 2007, giving them a kind of media win they desperately needed. It is also easier to get re-elected then to elect a new party. Labor and Bill Shorten would be aware of this, although in his 6 years as Labor leader not once has he been a clear favourite to lead our country. In fact, if it weren’t for Labor’s policy of not allowing leadership spills— instated after the Rudd-Gillard debacle— Labor would most likely have a different leader all together, which in my opinion would benefit them and the nation.

Unfortunately, Australians aren’t spoilt for choice. Morrison doesn’t seem to believe in climate change but handles the media extremely well and speaks fluently with an open mind. Shorten does believe in climate change, yet everything he says sounds canned and he can’t seem to speak for more than one sentence without dropping a ‘zinger’.

In the end it will come down to the final bell. It is way closer than the bookies have it.

Regardless of who gets in, my bet is that they won’t last long.

Advertisements